Time to pick a lane for this suddenly directionless team
Will Brady – October 21 2023
Projected Rotation:
*Players in blue are signed to 2-way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss the beginning of season due to injury*
Team Overview: What’s the Plan?
As recently as a few seasons ago, Raptors team President Masai Ujiri and his contingent of front-office decision makers were universally thought of as amongst the NBA’s elite. In the latter part of the 2010s, the Raptors player development machine was humming with wins such as Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, and Ujiri’s ballsy all-in move of shipping franchise icon DeMar DeRozan to San Antonio as part of a package for Kawhi Leonard led to the Raptors taking home the 2019 title. A few years later, with the Raptors coming off a season that ended without a playoff appearance and an offseason that saw an All-Star point guard depart the team for the second time in the last three summers, there are far more questions swirling around the job that Ujiri is doing. At last year’s trade deadline, VanVleet in the last year of his deal was one of the most sought-after commodities on the market. However, the Raptors instead chose to hang onto him and were later caught with their pants down when he departed for Houston in free agency, and Toronto received no compensation in return. Entering this year, Toronto has a similar situation with star forwards Siakam and Anunoby both entering walk years, and seemingly having no plans to commit to long term extensions. While the Raptors have until this year’s trade deadline to deal both should they so choose, an ill-timed trade for Jakob Poeltl at last year’s trade deadline means they are without a first round pick in the 2024 draft unless it falls between picks 1-6, limiting their ability to shift into rebuilding mode even if they want to. Toronto is very much stuck in the middle as currently constituted, unable to field a roster worthy of contention but apparently unwilling to pivot their focus to the future.
Notable Offseason Move: Caught in Between
In a vacuum, adding a player like Jakob Poeltl to the Raptors in 2022-23 made sense – Toronto was a roster full of capable perimeter defenders, but they lacked a rim protector to clean up mistakes in the paint, which is the exact skill set that Poeltl brings to the table. However, when Toronto sent out their 2024 1st round pick as part of the deal, they not only mistakenly doubled down on the ‘22-23 season, but also greatly hindered their flexibility for ‘23-24. Locked into the bird rights trap with Poeltl this summer, they handed him a 4 year (4th year player option) $80 million contract, but at the same time watched Fred VanVleet hit the exits for Houston. They may have solved the defensive issue that was ailing last year’s team by adding Poeltl, but now they have major offensive questions without VanVleet. It’s a frustrating game of one step forward, one step back for Raptors fans that leaves the team in no better condition to win games. Unable to seriously help their team via roster moves over the summer, and unable to easily pivot to a new direction because they do not control their own draft pick, Toronto is now left to hope that internal improvement or unforeseen positive developments on some other front bring good results. It’s possible, but it’s never an ideal situation for a team to be in heading into a season.
One Big Question: Is Scottie a Star?
While Scottie Barnes was well thought of by many heading into the 2021 draft, he was projected as a toolsy, developmental project of a prospect, a big wing with guard skills and defensive promise but far from a finished product. As such, it was a surprise when he burst onto the scene in his first year, starting all 74 of his games for a 48 win Raptors team and averaging over 15 points per game on his way to being named Rookie of the Year. Barnes showed enough promise as a rookie that Toronto was reportedly unwilling to even consider moving him as part of a package for Kevin Durant when the superstar forward requested a trade in the summer of 2022 (Sports Illustrated). Fast forward to the end of year 2 for Barnes, and his outlook does not look quite as rosy. In his second season, Barnes stagnated rather than taking a leap, as his scoring volume stayed the same (15.3 points per game) while his efficiency fell off (55.2% true shooting -> 52.4%). Barnes’ shooting is a major question mark, as he’s neither a reliable 3pt. shooter (29.0% career) nor is he efficient in the mid-range. His lack of potency as a scorer limits his ability to utilize his passing, which is above average for a player his size (6’9”), because defenses do not have to devote extra attention to him when he attacks to score. Perhaps most concerningly, Barnes’ defense, which was the one area of his game as a prospect that appeared to be a give-in, has been underwhelming so far. Barnes is not a player that opposing teams seek out as a weak point, but he also has not been a true difference maker on that end, and he’s shown that smaller players can exploit him from a lateral quickness standpoint. Despite all of that, Barnes is just 22 years old and has already flashed on-ball ability through his passing and well-rounded floor game that most players with his physical description never reach. Given where the rest of Toronto’s roster is from an age and talent perspective, Barnes breaking out as a star is still far and away the Raptors’ best chance at reaching the next level as a team. If he can show this season that ‘22-’23 was a temporary misstep and that he still has multiple levels to unlock in his game, Toronto’s future outlook might not look quite as gloomy as it currently appears.
One Area I’m Sure: Don’t Make the Same Mistake Twice
Barring the current roster miraculously emerging as a championship contender over the first few months of the season, the absolute number one priority for the Toronto Raptors in 2023-24 has to be ensuring that they do not allow Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby to walk out the door while receiving nothing in return. Allowing such an occurrence with VanVleet was a crucial error, and a repeat would be unforgivable – Toronto must determine whether or not each player is a part of their future plans and then act decisively in whatever direction they choose. Even if the acquiring team only has Siakam for half of a season with no guarantee of re-signing, his status as a 2-time all-NBA forward who could legitimately swing a playoff series or championship push should still be enough to net the Raptors a serious return in trade. The same rings true for Anunoby – his value as a 3&D wing who can fit in any system in the league is exceptionally valuable, enough so that multiple teams were reportedly willing to offer 3 1st round picks for him at last year’s deadline (Sports Illustrated). Unlike their fellow tier 5 dwellers Chicago, Toronto has the benefit of a front office that has a ton of organizational equity and trust built up due to prior success, and should feel secure in their long term positioning. They need to act with the big picture in mind and put the team in the best position to shoot for future championship contention, even if it comes with some short-term heartbreak.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Gary Trent Jr.
I’ve already spent a ton of time talking about two Raptors playing in the final year of their contract in Siakam and Anunoby, but there is a third Raptor who deserves mention as well – Gary Trent Jr. Heading into the summer, all signs pointed to Trent Jr. declining his $18.5 million player option for 2023-24 and testing the open market, as he lost his starting spot down the stretch of 2022-23 and was seemingly at odds with Toronto management. However, whether because of the Raptors change at head coach or more likely, because a better deal did not exist on the open market for him, Trent Jr. opted in and will return to the team this season. Trent Jr. fills an important role for this Toronto team as by far and away their best shooter, but he’s also polarizing in that he is a bit of a gunner on a team whose team president publicly called out for being too selfish (EPSN.com). Trent Jr.’s shot selection is definitely a flaw in his game – while he has the capability to get scorching hot and win a game single-handedly, he has far too many nights where he settles for contested jumpers in the midrange and shoots his team out of games. He brings little as a scorer around the rim, and nothing as a passer or rebounder. What intrigues me about Trent Jr. is that unlike some other guards with a similar profile, he has not always played this way. Early on in his career when he was a Portland Trail Blazer, Trent Jr. seemed to revel in taking on tough defensive assignments, using his stocky frame and quick hands to battle with the likes of LeBron James in the 2020 playoffs. Trent Jr. has the physical makeup to be an effective switch defender across the wing positions because he is strong, and if he fine-tunes his offense to be more of a three point specialist, he could be a really valuable piece – think of the role J.R. Smith played once he got to Cleveland in 2015. If Trent Jr. really did opt in because there was not much out there for him on the open market, I believe he will enter ‘23-24 with a different mindset and renewed focus. If he does, he will either really help the Raptors this season or be an under the radar deadline addition for a contending team.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 36-46 (o/u 36.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 26th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 8th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 19th
West Coast Hoops 