When dissecting the Los Angeles Clippers’ performances, a comprehensive approach using the “eye test” and advanced metrics is necessary. In the ever-evolving landscape of the NBA, the synergy between the “eye test” and advanced statistics has become indispensable. With the advent of the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty, advanced metrics have transcended from mere tools into a foundational aspect of NBA team operations, informing roster construction, offensive and defensive strategies, and evaluating individual and team performance. Those who solely rely on statistics may overlook the inherent variability of each NBA contest, wherein human error and unpredictable circumstances can defy numerical predictions. Conversely, analysts who exclusively employ the “eye test” risk tunnel vision, often fixating on individual offensive highlights while neglecting the intricate fabric of team dynamics, defensive prowess, and a player’s off-ball contributions.
The “Eye Test”
Observing the games, taking note of pivotal moments, player dynamics, and the overall game flow.
Evaluate the subjective aspects of performance, including player hustle, strategy execution, and clutch plays.
This approach provides an intuitive understanding of how the Clippers perform and the feel of each game.
Advanced Metrics – Quantitative Insights
Complementing the “eye test,” we delve into advanced metrics such as Offensive Rating (ORtg), Defensive Rating (DRtg), Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Turnover Percentage (TOV%), and Offensive Rebound Percentage (OREB%).
These metrics offer data-driven insights that uncover patterns and trends not always apparent through observations alone.
These metrics can help analyze individual performance, team performance, the effectiveness of different lineups, etc.
October 24th – October 29th (2W-1L)
Game 1: [Portland TrailBlazers] – [W 123-111]
Key Statistics:
36 Assists, 82-8 in last 10 years when the team has 30+ assists (a nonsense “espn” stat, but a huge thing to think about when a point of emphasis put on the team is sharing the ball and moving which leads to easy buckets).
Offensive Rating (ORtg) – 124.2, Defensive Rating (DRtg) – 112.1, Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) – 61.1%… Extremely unrealistic to expect, but love to see it
Offensive Rebound Percentage (OREB%) – 40%, amazing to see. Hard to lose with multiple opportunities per possession and shooting as well as the Clippers did.
Key Takeaways:
The Clippers came out firing with high energy, physical defense, sharing the ball well led to easy dunks, and set the tone beautifully in the regular season and home opener.
As perfect of a game from Kawhi, PG, Russ, and Big Zu that is possible.
Terance Mann was hurt so he was replaced by Robert Covington in the starting lineup, who is a welcome sight considering his 3pt and defensive ability and his lack of playing time last year.
Bones Hyland also benefited from Mann being out and thrived in his role as a shotmaker off the bench, it will be interesting to see if his role is as big when Mann returns.
The Clippers had arguably the best first game performance in the NBA other than maybe the Nuggets and the Pacers which raises the question: are the Clippers really good, or are the Blazers just that bad?
Game 2: [@Utah Jazz] – [L 118-120]
Key Statistics:
Only 17 assists, 6 in the first half… Utah had 16 at that time. Yes, Russ struggled with 4 turnovers in the first half, but at least he tried. Russ with 2 assists was the only Clipper with more than 1 assist.
Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DREB%) – 60%, awful means Utah had an OREB of 40%
eFG% – 62.3%… amazing shooting, shame to lose a game when shooting this well, a lot of that is because the Jazz had that many more shots because of how many offensive rebounds they got (17). Clippers shot 41/77, Jazz shot 42/96
Key Takeaways:
Answer to previous question: Blazers are just bad. No, the Clippers are still good, they played well, Utah played better.
Bones was great off the bench last game, this game it was Norman. As long as we can get someone as a + on the bench, every game should be winnable.
Rebounding is a point of emphasis I placed on the Clippers before the season started, and the Jazz beat the hell out of the Clippers on that side. The Clippers have the personnel to be a good rebounding team, but sometimes they get a little lazy on their box outs and going small this game did not work out.
Turned the ball over way too much in the first half which made the team have to play catch up.
Paul George has been incredible, and while Kawhi has been shooting the lights out, I wanted PG to have the ball on that last possession. Kawhi can make any shot on any possession, but he took way too long just to put up a bad shot, which he did a lot last year on final possession opportunities. Would love to see the team focus more on getting the best shot available when you have the time in just a 2 point game.
Game 3: [San Antonio Spurs] – [W 123-83]
Key Stats:
DRtg 79.8 (best in NBA in week 1), eFG% – 60.4% (only team with multiple games >60%, 3)
34 points off turnovers (most in NBA this year)
+11 rebounds
PG 5 steals in the first quarter
Key Takeaways:
Expected to win this game, but these are exactly the games the Clippers have to continue to show up and dominate for them to be a top 6 seed in the Western Conference.
Game was over by halftime, as it should be for a contending team going up against a young roster like the Spurs.
Wemby wasn’t able to get going and have his first good game, the Clipper defense was not scared to be physical with the 1st overall pick.
Big Picture:
Relatively easy games this week, can’t expect any of these teams to finish the year >.500, Clippers last year tied in the West for the third best record against teams <.500 24-11 which was a bi part of how they were able to finish as a top 6 seed.
PG and Kawhi played amazing, PG clearly putting extra emphasis on defense and getting to the paint, and Kawhi is shooting the lights out.
Marcus Morris seems to be fully out of the lineup, there was some offseason tension between him and the team, but so far he and Robert Covington have swapped roles from last year. Morris is probably the better player, but RoCo seems to know his role a little better. Don’t be surprised if Morris is traded as the team attempted to trade him for Brogdon in the offseason, which would be amazing if that actually gets done. More depth, shooting and playmaking from the reigning 6th man of the year can only help this team who doesn’t really have someone like him off the bench.
Overall, this was a really good week for the Clippers, excited to see how the team looks with Mann in the starting lineup
What to Expect Next Week:
2 Games, Tuesday vs Orlando Magic, Wednesday @ Los Angeles Lakers
The Clippers have the worst schedule in the NBA, and this has been the story the last 4 years. They have the most back to backs, the most weeks with 4 games, the most weeks with 2 games. What is the logic of having a back to back and then a 4 day break? Surely they could’ve played Tuesday and Thursday, or better yet play a 3rd game on Saturday so there is no need for one of the future back to backs.
Orlando is a fun young team, currently they are one of few still undefeated teams. Clippers should match up very well however with Kawhi and PG going up against Orlando’s wing duo of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Orlando will also be on the second half of a back to back against the Clippers Wednesday opponent, city rival Lakers
Lakers end the week 1-2 but going up against playoff level opponents, the Clippers have won the previous 11 matchups between the 2. The Lakers in their first few games have looked a bit unsettled, but with the Clippers playing a back to back it isn’t clear if either of the stars will be rested. On a high note, this will also be Russell Westbrook’s return to a Laker branded court which should be exciting.
Feel free to join the discussion, share your questions, thoughts, and predictions on the team this week, or the upcoming games for next week in the comments below. Your insights and perspectives contribute to the conversation!
West Coast Hoops 