Examining Potential Pascal Siakam Trades

How soon should Toronto shift into sell mode?

Will Brady – November 18 2023

Through the first 12 games of the season, the Raptors have largely been the team I expected. At 5-7 with a -2.4 net rating, Toronto projects to end the season with a win total somewhere in the 30s. The team’s offense, which was a major concern of mine, is currently the league’s 4th-worst, scoring just 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Their lack of shooting, which was an obvious roster flaw heading into the season, has killed them – their 33.1% 3FG as a team is ranked 27th in the NBA. Defensively, Toronto has been better and it’s what’s allowed them to hang around .500. However, the Raps are not so potent on the defensive end that it offsets their struggles to score, and we’ve already seen them give up big point totals to some of the top Eastern conference teams like Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Essentially, I see no reason thus far to pull back the plea I made to Masai Ujiri and the rest of the front office when I previewed this team – they have to come to grips with reality and start building for the future rather than the present. 

With that future-focus top of mind, it’s easy to see that by far the biggest positive of the season is the improved play of Scottie Barnes. Barnes has taken a huge jump as a shooter in terms of both conversion rate and volume, and it’s allowing him to score over 20 points per game at roughly league-average efficiency (56.1% true shooting). Barnes’ defense has been a revelation as well – he is currently averaging 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks per game, which are monster numbers for a forward. After regressing in his second season last year, Barnes looks to be back on track as a legitimate building block for the next great Raptors team. Toronto should be focused on finding players that fit well around Barnes, and it’s becoming more and more evident that Pascal Siakam is not one of those pieces. As Barnes has soared, Siakam has struggled – his three point shooting has nosedived to 23.5% and his per game scoring is the lowest it has been since the 2018-19 season. Siakam is getting closer to free agency with each passing day – Toronto would be wise to start exploring trade options for him sooner rather than later, especially if he has a stretch of solid play that boosts his value. If Toronto waits until the trade deadline to make a decision, they could be competing with other sellers to squeeze assets out of the same few teams. Ujiri needs to start taking the temperature of the market now, so that he can be first to move when the majority of players in the league become trade eligible on December 15.

In any trade of Siakam, I am prioritizing getting back picks and/or young players, as well as clearing the decks financially as much as possible going forward. It’s not a must to be receiving exclusively expiring salary, but any undesirable contracts that stretch past 2023-24 must be offset by more premium draft assets. As such, here are a couple possible deals that could be executed come December 15 that make sense to me.

Trade 1: Indiana Pacers 

In my opinion, the Pacers are the most obvious fit for a team that would have significant interest in Siakam. He would give them a plus starter at both ends at the four, and some of Siakam’s shooting concerns would be mitigated by playing next to a floor-stretching center in Myles Turner. Additionally, Siakam has done his best work throughout his career in transition, and Indiana plays faster than any team in the league behind Tyrese Haliburton. If the Pacers want to secure Siakam’s Bird Rights, as well as give themselves a more competitive team for this year’s playoffs, they might be willing to get aggressive as opposed to waiting until the offseason.

For the Raptors, this trade would be all about the picks, as well as the fact that T.J. McConnell’s partial guarantee for $5 million would be the only salary from this trade on their books for 2024-25. Hield would provide some much needed shooting in the immediate, and Toronto could potentially look to re-sign him next summer as a Gary Trent Jr. replacement. Although neither of these picks looks premium, getting a couple additional bites at the apple in the draft is never a bad thing, and they also give Toronto more assets with which to make a separate move if they so choose.

Trade 2: Dallas Mavericks 

Out: Pascal Siakam

In: Tim Hardaway Jr., Richaun Holmes, Jaden Hardy

2027 1st rd. pick (via DAL, unprotected)

Dallas has looked really strong to start this season, and if they can get the rest of the roster right, Luka Doncic is absolutely good enough to lead a championship team. The thought of a small-ball closing five with Siakam and Grant Williams in the frontcourt next to Luka and Kyrie Irving is definitely an intriguing one, and Dallas should be motivated to make a trade given that they have no path to attaining the cap space needed to sign Siakam in the offseason. 

In completing this trade, Toronto would be adding nearly $30 million in mostly dead money to their 2024-25 payroll in the form of Hardaway Jr. and Holmes. However, it would be worth it to get that 2027 pick, which would be the first season after Dallas might potentially lose Luka Doncic to free agency. Hardaway Jr. can at least provide shooting, and Hardy gives the Raps a good developmental option as a scoring guard.

Ultimately, it would make very little sense for the Raptors to re-sign Pascal Siakam on a huge money deal that takes him into his 30s when his play style has so much overlap with Barnes. As such, moving him for the best possible return is the obvious play. Maybe Toronto’s management wants to give this team until the trade deadline to start playing like a true playoff contender, but for me that seems like a pipe dream – all signs point to this being a mediocre squad. The journey to a more coherent future around Barnes should start as soon as possible.