By Rob Zintl
Through 12 games, the Boston Celtics look like the best team in the NBA. They own the league’s best record at 10-2, and we can probably assume that it’ll be 11-2 by tomorrow morning after they’ve finished their matchup with the messy Memphis Grizzlies (3-9).
This team was always great in theory. Now, with a dozen games under their belt, they’re more of a known commodity. Let’s check in with some big-picture impressions and start projecting how they’ll do in the coming weeks.
1. The Celtics are REALLY, REALLY, REALLY Good
In addition to the league’s best record, the Celtics have the best net rating and point differential per 100 possessions, by a LARGE margin. According to Cleaning the Glass, which filters out stats accrued during garbage time and end-of-quarter heaves, Boston’s point differential of +14.5 is a full SIX POINTS CLEAR of the next best team (PHI – +8.5). To put that in perspective, that six-point margin is equivalent to the distance between the 2nd best team and the 11th best (PHX). In case you’re a visual learner like I am, here’s what that looks like:
The Celtics have produced these results while facing the toughest schedule in the league thus far (ESPN). Although some regression towards the mean is to be expected as the sample size grows larger, Boston’s schedule will only get easier from this point forward.
2. Kristaps Porzingis Has Been As Advertised
The Unicorn looks good in green. He’s averaging 19.2 ppg on 68.7% true shooting. For comparison, Porzingis has a career true shooting percentage of 56.6%, and his previous season high was 62.7% last year with the Wizards. His efficiency is through the roof, primarily because he’s facing less defensive attention than he has in his entire career, and as a result he’s feasting on a diet of open threes, layups/dunks, and short jumpers in the post over smaller defenders.
In my season preview, I wrote about KP’s ability to beat switches and the value of that offense especially late in games. Much to the delight of Celtics fans worldwide, this expectation has gone exactly according to plan. For example, in the Celtics game against the Raptors last Friday, they found themselves down 2 points with a minute to go, in dire need of a bucket. Click here to see what happened.
7’3” gets 6’1” on a switch. Entry pass arrives, a swift decision is made. One-dribble turnaround. Porzingis can’t even see Schroeder here. Nylon.
That shot is too easy, and defenses will need to compensate in order to take it away. That opens up other things, as seen here.
Picking on Schroeder again. Holiday and Porzingis get the switch, and continually try to press that advantage. With 4s left on the shot clock, the double finally comes. Swing, swing, open three for one of the best shooters on planet Earth (more on that later).
3. Defensive Backcourt
The White-Holiday partnership in the backcourt has been phenomenal. The Celtics guards are big, strong, and opportunistic. When they share the floor, the Celtics league-leading defensive rating of 106.5 drops all the way down to a suffocating 101.9. Opposing guards are struggling to create any separation whatsoever. Try watching a full game from their perspective–it looks frustrating and exhausting.
I’ll be keeping an eye on the White-Holiday pairing throughout the season, especially with an eye towards a potential Finals matchup with Denver–in which shutting down Jamal Murray may be the Celtics’ only path to victory.
4. Smaller Notes
Bench:
Although the bench has looked shaky at times this season, their collective net rating of +2.6 ranks 5th in the league. If they can keep this level of production up, it will go a long way towards assuaging the preseason concerns about the Celtics lack of depth.
Hauser’s hot hand:
Three games into the season, Sam Hauser was shooting 20% from three. In the nine games since then, Hauser has shot 50% or better from deep in seven of them. His 3P% for the season is 45.2% on 6.1 attempts per game.
I remain absolutely baffled that there were ever any people who thought that Sam Hauser forgot how to shoot a basketball. The ball just goes through the net differently when he’s the one shooting it–he has a special touch and arc which is rivaled by only a small handful of humans on our planet, and anybody with functional eyeballs should be able to see that.
Tatum’s post play:
Bully ball. Tatum set the tone in the opening games of the season–he came back stronger this season, and is eager to force-feed defenders with a wide variety of post moves in case his three ball isn’t dropping. He won’t win the MVP, but this version of Tatum looks fully capable of leading the Celtics to a title in June.
5. Next Five Games
Now that we know what exactly this team is, I’m going to start predicting their wins/losses on a biweekly basis and tracking the results.
Here’s what I’m expecting:
W vs Memphis: they’re not good right now and we are.
W vs Charlotte: they’re not good right now and we are.
L vs Milwaukee: this is the tough one for me. Although I think the Celtics are the better team by a comfortable margin, the Bucks are starting to figure things out and riding some good vibes at the moment. On the other hand, the Celtics will be playing their third game in four nights, and perhaps even more tired and thin than usual with Jaylen Brown potentially missing some time with an adductor strain. I think the C’s will lose a close one–but if they pull it out I’d expect them to drop one of the next two.
W vs Orlando: the Magic play very well against the Celtics, but this is an IST game and I think Boston will be eager to prove that their 1-3 record vs Orlando last season was a fluke.
W vs Atlanta: the Hawks don’t look bad at the moment, but this game is in Boston and the Celtics are a much better team.
4-1 over that stretch. Let’s ride.
West Coast Hoops 