Did Toronto make the right call by moving on from Nick Nurse?
Will Brady – December 2 2023
One of the more controversial head coaching moves of this past offseason was the Toronto Raptors’ decision to move on from Nick Nurse. Nurse was extremely successful in his tenure up north, leading the team to the first NBA championship in franchise history in 2019, then following that up by winning Coach of the Year in 2020. However, Nurse’s teams missed the playoffs in both 2021 and 2023, and there was reportedly significant tension between him and Raptors team President Masai Ujiri that was a major factor in his dismissal.
To replace Nurse, Ujiri hired first-time NBA head coach Darko Rajakovic. Given Rajakovic’s humble standing in mainstream circles, it was a relatively surprising hire, but Ujiri made it clear that he was extremely dissatisfied with the team’s performance in 2022-23 and expected Rajakovic to bring about major changes. Rajakovic has emphasized many traditional tactics of modern coaching, including increased ball movement and a streamlined shot profile. However, the Raptors’ personnel differs from the ideal modern mold – in Nurse’s best moments, he excelled at tailoring his schemes to his team’s unique strengths and weaknesses. Now that Toronto is nearly a quarter of the way through Rajakovic’s first season, let’s take a look at how he is re-shaping the team and whether or not it’s the right approach for the roster he has inherited.
In Rajakovic’s introductory press conference, he spoke about the importance of passing and player movement in his offense (CBC). It’s a logical route for any new coach to take, but especially one whose boss publicly called out the 2022-23 team for playing selfishly (Yahoo Sports). True to his word, this year’s Raptors have relied far less on self-creation to generate offense. General ball movement is up: The Raps are up from 8th in passes per game (292.0) to 3rd (308.7). More importantly, they are making more out of those passes: Last year’s team turned just 8.2% of their passes into assists (2nd worst in NBA). This year, that figure is up to 9.1% (19th). It’s still an area that can be improved, but all in all, the Raptors are relying far less on self-creation to generate offense: After finishing 26th in assist percentage (57.1%) last season, Toronto currently ranks 4th (66.9%) in 2023-24.
There are early signs that Toronto’s improvements as a passing team have helped them generate more efficient shots. The Raptors are up from 17th in field goal attempts at the rim per game (26.8) to 9th (28.7). They are generating slightly more offense from beyond the three point line, improving their 3pt. attempt rate from 35.1% (25th) to 36.4% (23rd). They are also playing marginally faster, up from 26th in possessions per 48 minutes (97.1) to 17th (98.8). This combination of increased ball movement and shot profile change is correlated with Rajakovic’s desire to avoid the stagnant half-court possessions that plagued this team a season ago.
However, despite all of these statistical indicators that point towards a more efficient offense, Toronto has dropped from a 115.5 ORTG (11th) to 111.3 (24th). One might point towards personnel changes as an explanation: The Raptors lost arguably their best offensive player in point guard Fred VanVleet to free agency. I personally don’t find this valid. VanVleet’s replacement Dennis Schröder has done an admirable job to this point, outperforming VanVleet in true shooting (55.0% vs. 54.0%) on similar usage (21.6% vs. 23.2%), and topping him in assist percentage (32.2% vs. 28.1%) without a significant turnover increase (10.8% TOV vs. 10.2%). Pure shooting luck isn’t the culprit for their offensive drop-off either: Toronto is making 33.7% of their threes, in line with the 33.5% they made last season.
The real reason for Toronto’s drop in offensive efficiency is possession based. A symptom of Rajakovic’s pass-heavy scheme has been turnovers, where the Raptors rank 19th, turning the ball over on 12.5% of possessions. Nurse understood that his offensive personnel was limited, so he emphasized maximizing shots on the rim – Toronto ranked top two in turnover rate and top 3 in offensive rebound rate in each of his final two seasons leading the team. Rajakovic’s Raptors are still good on the offensive glass (7th), but no longer dominant. Maybe the team now is more efficient, but without an elite offensive creator or above-average shooting, that efficiency isn’t translating to scoring.
In contrast, Rajakovic’s scheme adjustments on the defensive end make it seem like he has a better grasp on his personnel than Nurse did. One of the common criticisms of Nurse was that despite being armed with (reputationally) excellent perimeter defenders such as VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby and Scottie Barnes, Toronto struggled to keep opposing ball handlers in front and force difficult shots. Perhaps feeling he needed his defense to help generate easy looks for his limited offense, Nurse opted for an aggressive style, with his Raptors leading the league in opponent turnover rate (15.3%). However, that high-pressure system had consequences, as Toronto fouled at the 6th-highest rate, ranked 20th in field goal attempts allowed at the rim and 28th in corner threes allowed, and forced the fewest mid-range attempts per game. Rajakovic has adopted a far more conservative style, relying on his defenders to work far more conventionally. Toronto is fouling at the 5th-lowest rate and ranks 11th in field goal attempts allowed at the rim, 15th in corner threes allowed, and 14th in mid-range attempts against. In fairness to Nurse, Rajakovic has the luxury of a true rim protector in Jakob Poeltl, whom the Raptors did not acquire until the trade deadline in 2023. Nevertheless, there’s no doubt that the scheme changes that Rajakovic has implemented are largely responsible for Toronto’s improvement in opponent eFG% from 29th (56.5%) to 16th (53.9%), and their subsequent DRTG improvement from 114.0 (12th) to 112.7 (10th).
I find the shift from Nurse to Rajakovic to be fascinating because, in many ways, it acts as a case study for operating the “right” way vs. maximizing the hand you’ve been dealt. While Nurse deserves a ton of credit for somehow squeezing a competent offense out of the roster he had, he was criticized for a lack of player development in his final few years. Nurse had one of the smallest bench rotations in the league, and his best players were always among the league leaders in minutes. When he saw a competitive advantage, he preferred to max it out to its fullest and allow weaknesses to hit the extreme end as well. Rajakovic’s approach is far more measured, and while Toronto’s offense has suffered in the short term, it’s possible that the habits he is instilling now will pay off down the road. Scottie Barnes, Toronto’s brightest young star, has taken a major step forward on the offensive end after stagnating in his second year under Nurse in 2022-23.
Ultimately, I believe both Nurse and Rajakovic to be bright basketball minds and solid NBA head coaches. Now in his first season in Philadelphia, Nurse has adapted his tactics to a very different roster and sparked some immediate improvement by once again leaning on his team’s specific strengths. I don’t think it’s lost on Rajakovic that he doesn’t quite have the personnel to play the space and ball movement style he values, but his vision is (and should be) oriented to the longer term. In my opinion, both men are now in situations that fit them best: Nurse hired to optimize a roster ready to win now, and Rajakovic to implement a system that rebuilds Toronto into the team that he (and Ujiri) prefer.
West Coast Hoops 