Much of the conversation around Utah basketball has been negative amidst a 10-17 start. Some untimely injuries, contorted personnel synergy, and glaring inexperience really serve as the main contributors to the disappointment thus far, and the Jazz front office has certainly taken note. A fire sale may be imminent with recent reports claiming that the Jazz are willing to hear offers for a once untouchable Lauri Markkanen, indicating that anyone drafted before 2022 is available on the market. A shift of focus to developing the younger portion of the roster calls for shipping off some pieces that may be attractive to prospective contenders. Let’s identify some of the Jazz’s key assets that may suit up in a different city come February 8th.
Collins essentially has endured a career defined by swirling trade rumors really since he broke out in his second year dating back to 2019 with the Atlanta Hawks. He last played on December 8th, where he tied his season high in total points with 20, due to a lingering illness, but expectations are for him to return shortly. In his absence, we’ve seen rotation minutes open up for others players, most notably is 2023 1st-round pick Taylor Hendricks. With the impressive flashes exhibited by Hendricks to fill some of those minutes in the frontcourt, an older and more expensive Collins becomes expendable.
The rationale behind his trade buzz is virtually two-fold in nature. One side being, he’s a very talented hybrid-forward who plays with length and athleticism which in theory added a beneficial dynamic to a Jazz team with plenty of skilled forwards, but nonetheless warrants a solid return for a contender aspiring for that skillset. The second side of the equation comes down to the fact that Collins has been somewhat disappointing in a Jazz uniform. It’s less a product of his statistical production, putting up 14.2 PPG and 8.6 RPG on 57.19% TS, and rather an assessment of his fit into the roster. He’s earning $25.3 million this season and continues to leave a lot to be desired in terms of rediscovering what made him a near All-Star earlier in his career. Taking a more in-depth look at Collins’ season, his advanced metrics serve as a tocsin for why the coaching staff has been rather displeased.
John Collins is currently shooting a career-worst 57.19% TS% and a 54.38% eFG%, which are indicators that his shot quality has not really improved from last season despite an encouraging uptick in 3FG% at the surface. Additionally, Collins has disfavored some of the Jazz’s key players when analyzing on-off numbers, with a John Collins-Walker Kessler lineup has a plus-minus of -6.0 in 16 games, a Collins-Keyonte George lineup is a -6.8 in 22 games, and a Collins-Lauri Markkanen lineup is a -2.8 in 16 games. Two-man lineups are surely not the most panoptic statistical analysis, but it reenforces the idea that Collins is just not an ideal fit for this roster, where some of the worse numbers emerge in tandem with pieces the Jazz want to build upon. As of late, we’ve seen Collins’ offensive role really boiled down to being anchored in the corner and the occasional high-post touch into a drive. Not exactly the fluid movement Will Hardy is trying to implement. The bright side of the John Collins situation is that it was always characteristically experimental, a rare low risk-high reward investment.
John Collins’ encouraging surface statistics in conjunction with his ubiquitous size and athleticism will certainly keep aspiring contenders intrigued, however the Jazz would certainly have to eat some of his salary given its size and length (3 years currently remaining). This may diminish the value of Collins’ ideal return, but finding a new home for him will probably best serve both parties for both the present and future.
Jazz fans have seemingly undergone a near 180 degree reversal in opinion regarding the 31 year-old Jordan Clarkson. As recently as last season, Clarkson materialized as somewhat of a fan favorite in Utah, assuming the role of ultra-microwave scoring threat who accumulated big scoring numbers and hit tough shots. With his scoring brilliance and veteran leadership, it made sense for the Jazz to sign him to a 3-year extension this past offseason. Nonetheless, we’ve witnessed the poor end of the spectrum for Jordan Clarkson, mainly highlighted by his dreadful start to the season defined by putrid shooting percentages and a proliferation in turnovers.
To start the season, Clarkson served as the lead guard responsible for initiating much of the offense and setting the pace, which isn’t exactly his game. His passing numbers have been especially disappointing this season, with an assist-TO ratio of 1.65 and a live ball TO% of 61.40% (2nd highest in his career, only behind his rookie season in LA). Plainly put, the season began with trying to manifest Jordan Clarkson into something he is not, a point guard. Consequently, his scoring numbers and totals have disintegrated as his underwhelming threat as a passer has been amplified. Defenses are able to collapse in on Clarkson’s top-of-key isolations, where he has typically found the most success in his career, as they trust they can close out late as Clarkson won’t recognize open shooters as quick when his operating space becomes congested, leading to forced shots and turnovers. This simplistic schematic approach to Clarkson is what has produced the 3.0 TO per game and a 49.8% TS%.
Jordan Clarkson may still be an attractive piece in the eyes of a contender if he is willing to accept a smaller role. Competitive teams in need of bench scoring in an approximately 20 minute per game dosage may find Clarkson’s scoring potential as valuable coming down the stretch. This may motivate potential suitors to take on his reasonable contract despite Clarkson being in his early-30s, but I wouldn’t expect some gargantuan return. This is another situation where it may benefit both parties, as Clarkson can return to competitive teams and the Jazz can open up minutes for young guards to develop.
Here is an example of the Jazz front office capitalizing on return for an asset that has been trending upwards. Olynyk’s game has been pretty simple and steady throughout his career: he’s a near seven-footer who can shoot. This season has supported this role, as Olynyk currently has a 66.3% TS% while hitting 48.5% of his spot-up shots. The added benefit with Kelly Olynyk is his passing ability, where he functions as an exceptional connective passer who keeps the offense moving sporting around 6.3 potential APG (4.3 APG).
This innate value as an offensive specialist will certainly be attractive to aspiring contenders looking for some shooting to come off their bench. Even with the 32-year old under contract for only the rest of this season, teams may be willing to pay a little extra for a rental in terms of the trade. I think an ideal suitor for Olynyk is the Los Angeles Lakers, who could really use some added shooting and can interchange Olynyk in-and-out of the lineup based on matchup to hide his poor defensive ability. If not the Lakers, plenty of other teams could make calls for Olynyk, and it would be best for the Jazz to receive something in return for his expiring contract and open up some minutes in the rotation.
The struggle has been all-too-real for the Utah Jazz with Lauri Markkanen being sidelined for three weeks with a hamstring injury. He did return last week against the Knicks and while still playing on a minutes restriction, looks like he is returning to full-health. The Jazz have seemingly unlocked Markkanen since poaching him from the Cavaliers in exchange for superstar Donovan Mitchell, as Lauri himself as become a star in his own right winning the NBA’s Most Improved Player award last season and putting up 23.2 PTS/8.5 RPG on 48.6%/38.4%/84.6% shooting splits this season. However, a sub-.500 record and recent rumors suggest a trade involving Lauri Markkanen may be a legitimate option for Utah, as he could demand a large return given his ascension in the NBA hierarchy.
I am currently in the camp of keeping Lauri on the roster and using him as a building block for the future. Versatile wings are so incredibly essential for successful NBA teams that it is unwise to simply move on and hope there are bigger fish in the sea. Markkanen has been the one key component that has consistently worked with what Will Hardy is attempting to establish in Salt Lake City and has been the primary success story of the Jazz’s roster overhaul. Already having a star talent identified is what ultimately accelerates the rebuilding process, and holding onto the 26-year old Lauri Markannen will maintain a sense of identity and purpose within the organization as they continue to collect and use draft picks while simultaneously developing their younger players.
The one hesitation surrounding keeping or trading Lauri Markkanen is the fact he is due for a contract extension this coming offseason, and certainly a substantial one in terms of financial commitment. However, I believe that he will be worth it for the reasoning I just mentioned. You don’t just assume that talent like this is widely available. So unless something drastic changes in the next few weeks or an interested party offers a Rudy Gobert-adjacent package, Lauri would be the one veteran asset I would choose to hold onto this forthcoming trade deadline.
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