by Rob Zintl
(image from the Boston Globe)
With their victory last night, the Boston Celtics improved their record to 29 and 8–a full four games clear of the Bucks for the top seed in the East. As the Celtics fly to Milwaukee for a nationally-televised matchup this evening, let’s check in on the state of the team after 37 games, including some preseason predictions.
Zone Defense: as promised, the Celtics have been experimenting with a couple different zone looks throughout the season thus far, with varying levels of success. In addition to the 2-2-1 full-court press, Boston has also spent a number of halfcourt possessions in a 2-1-2 during recent weeks. This variability could be a useful weapon to disrupt opponents’ offensive rhythm in the playoffs. As noted by Caitlin Cooper (@C2_Cooper on Twitter), the Celtics have even played Jrue Holiday at center on some of these possessions, adding another complex layer to the scheme and unleashing Holiday’s quick hands and disruptive instincts within the paint. Video here. It will be interesting to observe whether or not the Celtics can sharpen up their execution of these schemes enough to rely on them in the postseason.
Clutch Performance: Boston has played in 19 “clutch” games so far this season, emerging with a record of 12-7 in these contests. The team has a TS% of 65.6% in the clutch, and a net rating of +20.5. These gaudy numbers are the result of a diversified late-game offense–in contrast to recent seasons, these Celtics are running actual plays in late-game scenarios, instead of relying solely on Jayson Tatum isolation threes. In particular, Boston has found late-game success via the White/Porzingis pick and roll as well as letting Porzingis hunt switches in the post. Continuing to find offense in clutch moments will be essential for the Celtics if they hope to raise a banner in June.
Luke Kornet: as I wrote in the season preview, the role of backup big man was perhaps the biggest question facing this Celtics roster. At this point, those questions can be put to bed. Kornet has played exceptionally well in his minutes at both ends of the floor. He is finishing his limited opportunities on the offensive end at a high clip (72.2% true shooting), as well as defending the rim at an elite level (holding opponents -10.7% below average on shots within 6 feet).
Home Record: the Celtics are off to an 18-0 start at home, the best in franchise history. Although improving their play at home wasn’t exactly a huge topic prior to the start of the season, the pride and tenacity they’ve displayed at the Garden has been extremely encouraging thus far. As talented as Boston is, they’ve repeatedly hamstrung themselves in the playoffs with lackluster play on their home floor. In 23 home games over the past two postseasons, the Celtics have posted a pathetic 11-12 record, including a particularly dismal 2-5 mark when facing the Miami Heat in TD Garden. The Celtics have never struggled to win on the road when it counts–the real question is whether or not they can continue defending their home floor with pride and conviction late in the playoffs.
Outlook after 37 games:
As expected, this team will contend for the title, and anything short of Banner 18 should be considered a failure. The Celtics lead the league in net rating, and are top-2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. At this point, I would project the Celtics for somewhere between 60-64 wins and the top overall seed in the playoffs. A key priority for the team should be preserving the health of their top six, and Kristaps Porzingis in particular. Assuming the Celtics can stay healthy, they should be regarded as the favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in June.
West Coast Hoops 