With half the season down, let’s re-visit some preseason takes
Will Brady – January 16 2024
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 36-46 (12th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 26th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 8th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 19th
Current Metrics:
Record: 15-25 (12th in East)
Offensive Rating: 17th
Defensive Rating: 20th
Net Rating: 21st
Team Overview: Going Through Changes
Last season, the Raptors failed to accurately assess themselves, and it ended up costing them dearly. Toronto sunk resources into the team by trading away their 2024 1st round pick for Jakob Poeltl, when they should have been selling off pieces like impending free agent Fred VanVleet. The team ended up missing the playoffs, and VanVleet departed for Houston, with the Raptors left holding an empty bag.
Heading into 2023-24, my main concern was that Toronto would once again fail to recognize where they should sit in the team building process. By getting proactive and trading away OG Anunoby, team President Masai Ujiri has begun to quell my worries. The Raptors acquired Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett in the deal, two players who should be both cheaper and much better fits next to Toronto’s main building block, forward Scottie Barnes.
I believe the Raps to be a better team than their 15-25 record, but nothing has changed about whether they should be looking to buy or sell. They need to finish the remodel and get a good return for Pascal Siakam as well, before he hits free agency this summer.
Where I Was Right: Scottie the Swing Piece
After being named the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes suffered through a frustrating season in 2022-23 where he regressed or stagnated in many statistical areas. His inability to build off of his first NBA campaign led to questions about whether he was the franchise centerpiece he initially looked to be.
Unquestionably, the lone bright spot in an otherwise dim season so far has been how Barnes has bounced back in 2023-24. He’s taken on a bigger role in the offense, upping both his usage and assist rate, without sacrificing efficiency. In fact, he has boosted his true shooting from 52.4% in ‘22-23 to 57.5%. He’s also taken a massive leap as a shooter, attempting almost three more 3PA per 36 minutes this season while also converting at a 37.8% clip (up from 28.1%).
When I wrote about Barnes in my team preview, I noted that his development would be central to determining the Raptors future direction. Now that he looks like he’s back on an All-Star track, it once again makes sense for Ujiri and the front office to build the team around him. His overlap with Siakam on the court, as well as the age gap between the two, should only empower the organization to continue their retooling.
Where I Was Wrong: Defensive Turnaround
While I was ready to massively downgrade Toronto’s offense this year given the loss of VanVleet, I did believe that their defense was poised to take a leap. On paper, the Raptors appear to have excellent defensive personnel, especially given the presence of a true rim protector in Poeltl.
Thus far, it has not been the case, and I only expect Toronto’s defense to continue to slip now that Anunoby is in New York. Other than avoiding fouls, the Raptors lack an area where they truly separate themselves from the competition on the defensive end. They allow far too many looks at the rim, don’t force many turnovers, and struggle with physicality on the interior.
One area to monitor is opponent shooting luck. The Raps are allowing 38.8% opponent three point shooting, which is the third-highest mark in the league. If this regresses some, it’s possible that they will look more like a mid-pack defense than bottom third.
Outlook Going Forward: Can They Complete the Transition?
On the court, Toronto should win more games in the season’s second half, as they have gotten unlucky in many close games and have also dealt with some key injuries to this point. Depending on what they receive in return for Siakam, I’ll be surprised if they cannot rise above the other Eastern conference members play-in contenders and at least finish the year in the East’s top ten.
Ultimately, the win/loss results are trivial this year, just as they were at the start of the season. 2023-24 for Toronto is about positioning themselves for the future, and trying to dig out of the self-imposed hole of their past transactions. The Anunoby trade was a solid start, but that cannot be the end. Siakam must be next, and any other veteran with trade value should follow. If Toronto can play some competitive games down the stretch while featuring exclusively young, future-focused pieces in their rotation, that should be considered an organizational win.
West Coast Hoops 