What moves should be made ahead of Thursday’s deadline?
Will Brady – February 6 2024
With the trade deadline now just a couple days away, the Raptors can sit pretty with the knowledge that they’ve already completed the lion’s share of their work. Masai Ujiri and the rest of the front office deserve credit for being proactive in trading away O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, as well as netting both young players (for Anunoby) and draft capital (for Siakam).
With that being said, Toronto is still well positioned to continue stripping down this team. The Raps currently sit at 17-33, 12th in the East and five games behind the Hawks for the conference’s final play-in spot. Cracking the top 10 isn’t out of the question, but it should not be the priority. The Raptors have the foundation of a core between Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, but they clearly need to continue to add talent. This shouldn’t be a full-on rebuild, but a short term retooling of the roster with an eye on being competitive in ‘24-25, or more likely, ‘25-26.
If the Raptors choose, they have a real path to cap space this summer. Whether they use that flexibility to add players in free agency or via trade, preserving that flexibility is valuable and needs to be taken into consideration in any deal they make. It also means they should capitalize on the return for players like Bruce Brown and Gary Trent Jr., who would need to be allowed to walk if Toronto does indeed want to maximize their spending power.
Finally, there’s an outside chance that an aggressive tank to end the season could allow the Raptors to keep their 2024 first round selection, which is currently owed to the Spurs if it falls outside of picks 1-6. However, they could get unlucky in the lottery and lose the selection even if they do attain one of the 6 worst records in the league. It’s also possible that the Raptors would prefer that the pick conveys this year regardless, as if it does not, Toronto would owe their 2025 first rounder, again protected 1-6. My view is that the pick is a sunk cost at this point, and it should not sway Toronto’s actions. They need to get what they can for the players they have, even if it means handing San Antonio a top ten pick this year instead of a pick in the late lottery.
Candidate Profile: Bruce Brown (Age 27)
Contractual Status: $22M in ‘23-24, 1 year (team option) and $23M ($0M guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Possible Suitors: NYK, LAL, PHI
Realistic Return: Protected first round pick OR multiple quality seconds and a moderately interesting young player
Brown hasn’t been quite as good this season as he was last year for Denver, and he also now makes significantly more money. At the same time, he’s functionally on an expiring contract (team option for ‘24-25), so there’s not an incredible financial strain for an acquiring team. Interested parties could opt him out of the final year his current contract with the goal of signing him for longer at a lower AAV, as he still provides a lot of value as a plus perimeter defender across multiple positions.
If the Raptors intend to stay over the cap next season, they could easily keep Brown and either opt him in or try and re-sign him at a lower AAV themselves. He’s not a perfect fit next to Scottie Barnes and R.J. Barrett due to his mediocre shooting, but I do like him as a backcourt mate for Immanuel Quickley because he can defend both guard spots and provide some supplementary playmaking.
If Toronto plans on letting Brown go, then trading him before the deadline is obviously preferable to (likely) letting him walk for nothing. I believe there should be a first round pick for him on the table due to his proven track record of being a championship-level role player.
FAKE TRADE:
NYK: Bruce Brown
TOR: Evan Fournier, 2025 1st round pick (via MIL, protected 1-4)
Candidate Profile: Gary Trent Jr. (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $18.6M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Possible Suitors: ORL, LAC, HOU
Realistic Return: Multiple second round picks OR a single second and a moderately interesting young player
As with Brown, the decision of whether to trade or keep Trent Jr. likely hinges on how Toronto plans to operate with respect to the cap this summer. He plays a fairly important role on the Raptors as by far and away the team’s best shooter, and his ability to catch and fire on the move does stress a defense. On the other hand, he’s a below average defender and provides very little in the way of passing or ball handling, and the Raptors have Gradey Dick who can theoretically take his place in the rotation.
Even if Toronto is actively shopping Trent Jr., there may not be amazing offers for him on the table. He makes sense for a rebuilding team like Detroit or San Antonio that is desperate to upgrade their shooting, but those teams have the flexibility to wait and sign him in the offseason. I also don’t see a ton of contenders who will feel pressure to acquire his Bird Rights either, as Trent Jr. may not have a market above the mid-level in the offseason and he’s unlikely to make a massive impact in the 2024 playoffs.
FAKE TRADE:
ORL: Gary Trent Jr.
TOR: Joe Ingles, Chuma Okeke, 2025 2nd round pick (via ORL)
Candidate Profile: Dennis Schröder (Age 30)
Contractual Status: $12.4M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $13M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Possible Suitors: MIN, LAL, NYK
Realistic Return: Protected first round pick OR multiple quality seconds and a moderately interesting young player
Schröder’s season-long numbers still look solid, but he’s been marginalized in the rotation since Toronto acquired Quickley, and that doesn’t figure to change going forward. Even in a backup role, his contract for ‘24-25 would be perfectly reasonable in a vacuum, but the Raptors spacing concerns make him less valuable in Toronto than he might be elsewhere. Additionally, getting out from under his $13M for next season would only further strengthen the Raptors spending power this summer.
There’s no urgency to trade Schröder, as his market will still exist (and might even be larger) around the time of the 2024 draft, when Toronto will have a better sense of free agency targets and how much room they need to open up. However, they should still be fielding calls now, as there are a number of teams who could use Schröder’s on-ball defense and ability to penetrate the lane.
FAKE TRADE:
MIN: Dennis Schröder
TOR: Shake Milton, Troy Brown Jr., Wendell Moore Jr., 2024 2nd round pick (via the worse of either WAS or MEM), 2029 2nd round pick (via MIN)
Candidate Profile: Jalen McDaniels (Age 26)
Contractual Status: $4.5M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $4.8M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Possible Suitors: DAL, BOS, SAC
Realistic Return: A quality second round pick OR multiple middling second round picks
Signing McDaniels last summer was a strange move at the time given how crowded Toronto’s frontcourt was, and it doesn’t look any better now. He’s largely been removed from Darko Rajakovic’s rotation, as he really struggled in the limited minutes he received early in the season. I don’t think his outlook for ‘24-25 is much better, as he’s not a great fit next to Barnes, so it might behoove the Raps to try and move on from the $4.8M he is owed for next year.
In theory, McDaniels has the length and athleticism to hold his own defensively and he’s been a passable three-point shooter at times throughout his career. He makes more sense for a team like Dallas or Boston that can deploy him in a limited role that maximizes his strengths while not asking him to do too much.
FAKE TRADE:
DAL: Jalen McDaniels
TOR: Seth Curry, 2025 2nd round pick (via TOR)
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