It’s been a discouraging start – what’s going wrong, and what are the possible solutions?
Now that we are just over 2 weeks and 6 games into the season, it’s time to assess how the Raptors have looked so far. First, let’s take a look at the top line metrics (courtesy of Basketball Reference) for the team:
Record: 2-4
Offensive Rating: 105.6 (25th out of 30)
Defensive Rating: 107.1 (9th out of 30)
Net Rating: -1.5 (19th out of 30)
Offensive Woes: What’s Ailing Toronto?
Obviously, consistently putting the ball in the basket has been this team’s biggest issue. When watching them, it is immediately evident how limited they are from a shot creation perspective, especially in the half-court. Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam are more good than great in this area, and neither is helped by the fact that the Raptors are unable to space the floor around them with high quality shooting. A season ago when the Raptors finished 11th in offensive rating, Toronto was able to mitigate inefficient shooting with extreme ball security – their 10.3% turnover rate was the best in the league. This year, that mark has skyrocketed – Toronto currently ranks 28th in the league with a 14.7% turnover rate. If turnovers remain an issue for the Raps, it’s going to be very difficult for them to put forth an effective offense. They do not have great offensive personnel, so they need to maximize their possessions and get more shots on the rim than their opponents in order to keep pace.
One area I’d like to see head coach Darko Rajakovic lean into is getting the team out in transition more. Currently, they are playing at the second slowest rate in the league (97.3 possessions per game). Walking the ball up the court and relying on their half-court offense is not going to be a winning formula for this team. If they can weaponize their stellar perimeter defenders like O.G. Anunoby and Dennis Schröder to force more turnovers, they should be able to get out in transition and create a few more opportunities for easy buckets. Rather than banging their head against the wall of a set defense, I’d like to see how well they can score if they can consistently find themselves in advantageous situations on the break. Toronto also needs more consistent play out of their two best shooters, Gary Trent Jr. and Gradey Dick. Neither player is over 30% from three so far this year, and the Raptors desperately need them to get going given that those two are really the only plus shooters receiving consistent rotation minutes. I expect both players to improve over a larger sample size, but their slow starts are definitely worth monitoring.
Not All Negative:
Despite their losing record overall, there are some positives to take away from the first two weeks. The play of Scottie Barnes has been extremely encouraging, and his development really should be priority number one for this season. Barnes has upped his scoring from last year by 6 points per game (15.3 -> 21.3) and his assists by 1 per game (4.8 -> 5,.8). Perhaps most encouragingly, Barnes has really improved his shooting from the outside, both in terms of volume (2.9 3PA -> 4.7 3PA) and accuracy (28.1% 3FG -> 39.3% 3FG). It’s obviously a very small sample size, but if Barnes has taken a leap as a scorer, that is a huge boost for this franchise. New point guard Dennis Schröder is also playing very well early on in his Raptors tenure – his per game averages of 9.3 assists and just 1.8 turnovers show that he is captaining the offense quite well, something he has struggled with at prior points in his career.
Overall as a team, defense has been what is keeping the Raptors afloat thus far. We’ve seen in wins over Minnesota and Milwaukee how suffocating their wing defense can be, and Toronto has the ability to force opponents into a very difficult shot profile. If they can continue to defend, they will find themselves in a lot of close games, and with a little bit better late game execution, wins could be right around the corner.
What to Watch For Going Forward:
Toronto’s next 6 games are tough – they play two against Boston, have a rematch with Milwaukee, and will visit Dallas. It’s still early, but this is a tenuous time – the Raps need to make sure they don’t dig themselves too deep a hole that they will then spend the rest of the season clawing out of. Another area of concern is the play of Pascal Siakam – while Barnes has excelled, it seems to have come at the cost of Siakam’s production, as Pascal is taking his lowest volume of shots and scoring his fewest points per game since the 2018-19 season. Given that he will be a free agent at season’s end, Siakam is going to become disgruntled if his diminished touches continue. Rajakovic will have to work hard to keep this team on the rails if the losing continues, and we all know what type of changes could be in store at the deadline without a turnaround.
West Coast Hoops 